加拿大就业数据爆冷 加元承压降息预期升温

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected deterioration in Canada's employment data for July, with a significant drop in employment population by 40,800, exceeding market expectations [1] - The unemployment rate remained at 6.9%, lower than the expected 7%, primarily due to a decrease in the labor participation rate from 65.4% to 65.3%, which obscured the weakness in the job market [1] - Following the data release, the market reacted with a 0.2% increase in the USD/CAD exchange rate, although it continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.32-1.33, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] Group 2 - The probability of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in September has risen significantly from 35% to 46% after the employment data release, reflecting a growing expectation for a shift in monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that if subsequent economic data continues to show weakness, the Bank of Canada may be compelled to initiate a loosening cycle earlier, which could exert additional pressure on the Canadian dollar [1] - The USD/CAD exchange rate has broken below the middle Bollinger Band (1.3777) and is approaching the lower support line of 1.3755, indicating potential testing of the lower Bollinger Band support [2]