【债市观察】央行买断式逆回购注入中期流动性 首批恢复征税地方债平稳发行

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced fluctuations with a slight decline in yields, influenced by the recovery of the equity market and the central bank's liquidity measures. The 10-year government bond yield fell by 1.68 basis points to 1.69% over the week [1][4]. Market Overview - The bond market saw a total issuance of 61 bonds amounting to 806.51 billion yuan, including 4.6855 billion yuan in government bonds and 1.725 billion yuan in policy bank bonds [7]. - The central bank conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 700 billion yuan to maintain liquidity, resulting in a net injection of 163.5 billion yuan into the market [13][14]. Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed varied changes from August 1 to August 8, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 1.68 basis points to 1.6891% [2][3]. - The 30-year and 10-year futures contracts rose by 0.19% and 0.18%, respectively, indicating a bullish sentiment in the futures market [6]. International Market Context - The U.S. Treasury market showed signs of weakness, with yields rising by 6-8 basis points, reflecting a decrease in demand for newly issued bonds [8][9]. - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, with an 88.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September [11]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the recent issuance of local government bonds exceeded expectations, indicating a supportive stance from the central bank and a pursuit of yield by institutions [17][18]. - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with specific attention to the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% [17][18].