机构：明晚24时本轮成品油零售限价调整搁浅概率较大

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation and decline, leading to a decrease in the domestic reference crude oil change rate, which is expected to result in a retail price adjustment for refined oil being suspended on August 12 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current pricing cycle (from July 29 to August 12) has seen a high-level fluctuation in international crude oil prices, with a calculated increase of 20 yuan/ton, which is below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold set by the National Development and Reform Commission [1]. - Factors contributing to the weak fluctuation of oil prices include lower-than-expected non-farm data, concerns about economic recession, and an oversupply expectation due to increased production by OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [1][2]. - The upcoming meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia on August 15 is adding further downward pressure on oil prices, reversing some of the gains driven by previous geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustment Expectations - As of August 8, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was at 0.52%, indicating an expected increase of 20 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for August 12 at 24:00 [1]. - The probability of a suspension in the adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices is high due to the current change rate being below the adjustment threshold [2].