金鹰基金田啸周评：均衡配置应对潜在波动和快速轮动

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, surpassing the key level of 3600, with margin trading balances rising to the highest level since July 2015 [1][3][26] - Economic data released this week showed that July export figures exceeded expectations, although the "export rush effect" is diminishing [1][3][13] - The market is expected to form a new consensus based on domestic policy directions and mid-term performance reports [1][26] Industry Insights - In the technology sector, AI and innovative pharmaceuticals have become crowded trades, prompting new capital to seek lower-priced alternatives [2][27] - The military industry is gaining attention ahead of the 93rd anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japan, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions [2][27] - The value sector is expected to benefit from policies enhancing dividends and low interest rates, with a focus on high-yield assets during the economic recovery phase [2][27] Economic Indicators - A-shares saw a moderate increase in trading volume, with the average daily turnover dropping to 1.78 trillion yuan [3][23] - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market decreased, indicating a slight decline in trading activity [23] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% [12][13] Global Market Trends - Global indices saw a comprehensive rise, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by 3.9%, 2.4%, and 1.3% respectively [5][6] - The European market experienced mixed results, with the DAX and CAC 40 rising by 3.1% and 2.6%, while the FTSE 100 lagged behind with a 0.3% increase [6] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the South Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225 rose by 2.9% and 2.5% respectively [6] Policy Developments - The State Council issued opinions on gradually promoting free preschool education, aiming for quality development by 2025 [8] - The People's Bank of China and other departments released guidelines to support new industrialization, targeting a mature financial system by 2027 [8][9] - The Ministry of Transport and other departments announced a plan to enhance rural road networks by 2027, aiming for improved transportation services [8] Trade and Export Data - In July, China's exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while imports increased by 4.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $98.24 billion [13] - The export growth was driven by strong performance in integrated circuits, steel, aluminum, and rare earths, despite a decline in exports to the U.S. [13] - The outlook for August exports is expected to maintain resilience, with a projected year-on-year growth of around 5% [13]