稀释美元信用的风险因素正在累积

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's credibility as the world's dominant currency due to various factors, including tariff policies and increasing national debt, which threaten its status as a global reserve currency [1][3][10]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The US dollar has experienced a downward trend, particularly influenced by Trump's tariff policies, which have created significant risks for the global economy and the US economy [3][4]. - The average effective tariff rate in the US has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934, which has led to a loss of dollar credibility despite achieving some trade negotiation successes [3][4]. - Tariff policies raise trade barriers, making it harder for non-US countries to obtain dollars, thereby reducing the demand for the dollar and undermining its traditional influence [4][5]. Group 2: National Debt and Fiscal Deficits - The US national debt has surpassed $36.2 trillion, with interest payments becoming the fastest-growing part of government expenditures, projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2024 [10][12]. - The increasing fiscal deficit, which reached $1.83 trillion in the previous fiscal year, has led to a cycle of rising national debt and interest payments, further eroding the credibility of the dollar [10][11]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the national debt could increase by $20 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US government's ability to service its debt [11][12]. Group 3: Shift Towards De-dollarization - Many countries are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the US dollar, creating alternative payment systems and exploring the establishment of new currencies to bypass dollar dominance [15][16]. - Initiatives such as bilateral trade agreements using local currencies and the establishment of regional payment systems indicate a growing trend towards a multi-polar currency system [15][17]. - The historical context suggests that the transition from a dollar-centric system to a diversified currency framework will be gradual and complex, reflecting the challenges of restoring trust once damaged [17].