8月棉纱价格或小幅下跌

Core Viewpoint - The cotton yarn prices in China are expected to experience a slight decline in August due to high inventory levels and weak demand in the textile market, despite a recent increase in cotton prices [1][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, cotton yarn prices rose slightly, driven by a significant increase in cotton prices, with the average price of cotton reaching approximately 14,741 yuan per ton, up 3.41% month-on-month [2]. - The average price of pure cotton yarn (32 count) was about 21,430 yuan per ton in July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [2]. - It is anticipated that cotton yarn prices may decline by 100 yuan per ton in August, with expected prices ranging from 21,100 to 21,700 yuan per ton [10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The cotton spinning industry is currently facing a downturn, with many spinning enterprises adopting a cautious approach to high-priced cotton purchases due to the ongoing demand slump [4]. - As of the end of July, the operating rate of cotton spinning enterprises was 61.20%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - The average inventory days for pure cotton yarn in large-scale spinning enterprises increased to 30 days, up 11.11% from the previous month, indicating a build-up of inventory [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for cotton yarn is weak, with downstream fabric manufacturers showing low order volumes and high inventory levels, leading to cautious procurement of cotton yarn [8]. - The cotton market is expected to return to fundamentals, with limited orders from downstream textile enterprises and poor profit margins for spinning enterprises potentially suppressing cotton demand [8]. - As the traditional peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") approaches, there may be a gradual recovery in demand towards the end of August, potentially increasing orders for spinning enterprises [6].