从“躺赚”到“内卷”，中国车商在俄这5年

Core Insights - The Russian used car market is becoming a new battleground for Chinese car dealers, contrasting sharply with the previous focus on new car exports to Russia, which has seen a significant decline in profitability and demand [2][3][4] - The market dynamics have shifted from a "golden profit period" during the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a more competitive and saturated environment, particularly in the new car segment, while the used car market is experiencing growth [3][4][11] Market Trends - In 2025, cumulative car sales in Russia are projected to reach 600,000 units, a 29% year-on-year decline, with Chinese brands holding approximately 55% market share [3][8] - The first half of 2025 saw a 59.2% drop in Chinese car exports to Russia, totaling 171,000 units, marking the largest decline among the top ten export markets [3][8] - The used car segment is thriving, with 55% of imported cars in Russia being used vehicles, up from 30% the previous year, while new car imports plummeted by 63% [12] Consumer Behavior - Russian consumers are increasingly turning to lower-priced Chinese used cars as new car purchasing power declines, with the tax on 3-5 year old vehicles being significantly lower than that on new cars [12][13] - The perception of Chinese cars has evolved from curiosity to acceptance, driven by improvements in product quality and the establishment of authorized service points [5][6] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Russian policies are tightening, leading to a decrease in Chinese car exports, with significant tax increases on imported vehicles set to take effect in 2024 [8][9] - The introduction of new certification requirements for vehicles exported to Russia is expected to increase costs and complicate the export process for Chinese manufacturers [9][10] Business Strategy - Companies are adjusting their business models, with a shift towards a higher proportion of used car exports, reflecting the changing market landscape [13] - The need for a deep understanding of local policies and market conditions is emphasized, as short-term speculative strategies are likely to fail [14]