纽约期金日内大跌 美国7月CPI数据前瞻

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting its safe-haven demand, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core CPI for July, aligning with market expectations, while overall CPI is projected to rise by 0.27% [2]. - Bank of America predicts a 0.24% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.31% increase in core CPI for July, which could elevate the core CPI year-over-year growth from 2.9% to 3.1% [2]. Market Impact - If CPI data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, weaker data or renewed geopolitical risks could enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - A closing price below $3,300 for gold could shift the outlook to bearish, while a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level may pave the way for new historical highs [3]. - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, followed by $3,350 and $3,335, with $3,300 being a critical short-term level [3].