债市日报：8月11日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a comprehensive pullback on August 11, with expectations of a moderate rise in yield costs following the cooling of tax adjustment disturbances, leading to a collective decline in government bond futures and a general increase in interbank bond yields by approximately 2 basis points [1]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.55% at 118.6, the 10-year main contract down 0.11% at 108.495, and the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 105.735 [2]. - The interbank major rate bond yields saw an increase, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 3.1 basis points to 1.9520% and the 10-year government development bond yield increasing by 3.2 basis points to 1.8220% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively on August 8, with the 2-year yield up 3.45 basis points to 3.762% and the 10-year yield up 3.49 basis points to 4.287% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield increased by 5.3 basis points to 3.347%, while the 10-year German bond yield rose by 5.9 basis points to 2.687% [3]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 28-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.1220% and 1.3243%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.95 and 2.67 [4]. - Agricultural Development Bank's 91-day, 3-year, and 5-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3731%, 1.6322%, and 1.7046%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.05, 2.6, and 3.2 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1120 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.315% and the 14-day rate declining by 1.39 basis points to 1.455%, marking a new low since January 2023 [5]. Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while the PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year PPI decline remaining at 3.6% [7]. - The core CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, indicating a continuous expansion over three months [7]. Institutional Perspectives - CICC predicts that the PPI may rebound to around -2.8% year-on-year in August, while the CPI may drop to approximately -0.4% year-on-year due to high base effects from last year [8]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market is in a phase of expected improvement, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to remain between 1.6% and 1.8% [9].