国债等债券利息收入8日起恢复征收增值税 创金合信基金王淦：或抬升利率水平 相对利好公募基金

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a tax policy change that will reinstate value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025. Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity. This reform aims to unify tax rules in the bond market and is expected to have both short-term and long-term impacts on various investors and the overall market [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Impact of the Tax Reform - The tax reform is a response to the cancellation of previous tax exemptions, as the goals of earlier policies have been achieved with the growth of the bond market. The adjustment is seen as a necessary step towards comprehensive tax rule unification, which may lead to a short-term increase in market interest rates and higher fiscal interest expenses, but is expected to enhance long-term fiscal revenue [2][3]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Effects on the Bond Market - The immediate effect of the tax reform is a market reaction characterized by a "rush for old bonds," but this is expected to stabilize quickly. The reform is likely to have a neutral to slightly negative impact, as the valuation center for new bonds will rise. The policy design may widen the yield spread between new and old bonds, with a potential difference of 5-10 basis points due to varying VAT rates [3][4]. - In the long term, the tax reform reduces the tax disparity between government bonds and credit bonds, which may enhance the pricing benchmark role of government bond yields. The impact on interest rate bonds will be gradual, while the new tax mechanism will take effect immediately for financial and local government bonds [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Different Types of Institutional Investors - The tax reform will have a more significant impact on proprietary institutions (such as banks and insurance companies) due to their higher VAT rates compared to asset management institutions. These institutions will likely prefer older bonds with lower tax implications, while asset management firms may increase their allocation to higher-yielding new bonds [4][5]. Group 4: Effects on Public Fund Fixed Income Business - The tax reform's impact on public fund fixed income business is expected to be minimal. The attractiveness of bond funds will depend on the extent to which tax costs are passed on to issuers. If costs are primarily transferred to issuers, the resulting increase in new bond yields could improve the overall yield environment for bonds [5][6]. Group 5: Adjustments in Investment Strategies for Bond Fund Managers - Bond fund managers may need to adjust their investment strategies in response to the tax reform. If tax costs are passed on to investors, the relative attractiveness of bonds compared to other asset types may decrease, potentially leading to a shift of funds towards riskier assets. However, public funds, benefiting from tax advantages, may still favor higher-yielding new bonds [6][7]. Group 6: Impact on Individual Investors - The impact of the tax reform on individual investors is expected to be limited. The VAT on interest income is relatively low, and the types of bonds affected do not significantly include products like money market funds. The demand sensitivity will determine whether the tax burden is passed on to investors, but it is likely that issuers will absorb these costs rather than passing them on to individual investors [7].