油价继续下行，俄赤字激增29%

Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices continued to decline, with Brent crude futures down 0.56% to $66.22 per barrel and WTI crude futures down 0.85% to $63.34 per barrel as of the report date [1] - The significant drop in oil prices was attributed to a bleak economic outlook caused by higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on imports from several countries, with Brent crude futures falling 4.4% and WTI crude futures dropping 5.1% in the week ending August 8 [1] Group 2: US-Russia Talks - A meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin is scheduled for August 15 to discuss the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, with expectations rising that sanctions on Russian oil may soon be lifted [2] - The market's anticipation of a potential agreement was fueled by Trump's statement that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching a deal regarding Ukraine [2] - The outcome of the upcoming meeting, along with other key events such as Federal Reserve officials' speeches and the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, will significantly influence short-term oil price movements [2] Group 3: Russian Economic Situation - Russia's Ministry of Finance reported a preliminary budget deficit of 4.9 trillion rubles (approximately 441.1 billion yuan) for the first seven months of the year, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, which is 29% higher than the 1.7% target for 2025 [3] - The increase in the deficit is attributed to falling oil prices and the trade war initiated by Trump, with government spending rising by 20.8% to 25.19 trillion rubles (approximately 2.27 trillion yuan) while revenue only grew by 2.8% to 20.32 trillion rubles (approximately 1.83 trillion yuan) [3] - The EU's 18th round of sanctions, which includes a price cap on Russian oil, is set to take effect on September 3, reducing the price cap from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, with evaluations every six months to ensure it remains 15% below market average [3][4]