深圳机场(000089)：产能放量+经营杠杆 盈利有望增长

Core Viewpoint - The company, operating Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, is experiencing continuous operational improvements due to the recovery of the civil aviation industry, with significant increases in passenger and cargo throughput expected in the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2024, the airport will have 186 passenger routes and is expected to handle 61.477 million passengers, ranking second in domestic passenger throughput [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the airport recorded 221,000 aircraft movements, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a 26.1% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [1]. - Cargo throughput reached 188.1 million tons in 2024, maintaining the top position in domestic cargo and mail throughput [1][2]. Group 2: Non-Aeronautical Business Development - The joint venture for duty-free business commenced operations in November 2023, with projected revenue of 210 million yuan and a net loss of 36 million yuan in 2024, which may temporarily impact profitability but enhance competitive strength in the long term [2]. - Advertising revenue is expected to reach 390 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with operating profit of 387 million yuan [2]. - The logistics revenue is projected at 450 million yuan in 2024, with operating profit of 88 million yuan, supported by significant growth in domestic and international cargo throughput [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure Expansion and Shareholder Returns - The third runway is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, with the T2 terminal bidding completed, which will impact revenue and cost structures [3]. - The company commits to distributing at least 45% of its distributable profits as cash dividends annually, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 55.6% for 2024, up from 51.7% in 2023 [3]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 has been adjusted to 620 million yuan, down from the previous estimate of 740 million yuan, with new projections for 2026 and 2027 set at 770 million yuan and 920 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite economic fluctuations and moderate recovery in non-aeronautical business [4].