滞胀阴影笼罩华尔街：防御板块成避风港，CPI报告恐定后市

Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming consumer inflation reports to assess the likelihood of stagflation becoming a reality, as economic growth slows and price pressures rise [1] - Morgan Stanley strategists highlighted the importance of the upcoming CPI report, indicating that recent economic data has amplified its significance [1] - Corpay's chief market strategist suggests focusing on defensive sectors such as utilities, communication services, and consumer staples while avoiding growth sectors like discretionary consumer goods [1] Group 2 - Concerns over a return to 1970s-style stagflation are causing economists and strategists to be cautious, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, removing a key catalyst for the stock market [4] - The S&P 500 index, which has risen 8.6% this year, has recently declined following disappointing employment reports and rising service sector inflation [4] - Bank of America economists warn that lowering interest rates in a stagflation environment without clear evidence of peak inflation is risky [4] Group 3 - Apollo Management's chief economist favors sectors less affected by macroeconomic uncertainty and tariffs, such as telecommunications, healthcare, utilities, and technology, while noting that energy may face negative impacts [5] - Tariff increases are seen as a stagflation shock, raising the likelihood of economic slowdown while exerting upward pressure on prices [5] Group 4 - Annex Wealth Management's chief economist is optimistic about sectors with stable volatility and positive business momentum, including finance, industrials, and technology companies that resemble "business essentials" rather than consumer essentials [6] - Companies like Microsoft and Amazon are favored due to their cloud computing businesses [6] - Despite current uncertainties, there is an expectation that anxiety over stagflation may diminish in the coming weeks, potentially due to tax cuts that could stimulate investment [6]