重磅经济数据即将发布，宏观政策将适时加力

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend in the second half of the year, following a 5.3% growth in the first half [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release July macroeconomic data on August 15, with expectations of a slowdown in industrial production growth due to seasonal factors and external disturbances [1] Industrial Growth - The average forecast for July industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, despite a decline in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.3% [2] - External demand remains resilient, with key indicators such as coal consumption and railway freight volume showing active production [2] Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July retail sales year-on-year growth is 4.9%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.8% [3] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in related sales since its implementation [4] Fixed Asset Investment - The average forecast for July fixed asset investment growth is 2.8%, consistent with the previous month [5] - Infrastructure investment remains supported by government policies, despite external pressures and a decline in corporate profits [5] Real Estate Investment - High-frequency data indicates a significant decline in new home transaction volumes in major cities, with expectations of an expanded decline in real estate development investment growth [6] - The land transaction area in major cities has also shown a negative trend, indicating a weakening market [6]