【环球财经】巴西经济学家：利差收窄或引起雷亚尔贬值

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar is attributed to the narrowing interest rate differential between Brazil and the US, rather than Brazil's benchmark interest rate itself [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Differential - The key factor influencing the real's exchange rate is the interest rate differential between Brazil and the US, which is expected to narrow to 5% by the end of 2024, marking the second lowest level in nearly 20 years [1]. - Historical data indicates that significant depreciation of the real occurred during periods of low interest rate differentials, specifically during the pandemic years of 2021-2022 [1][2]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Behavior - The relationship between the Brazilian real's exchange rate and the interest rate differential is characterized by a "smile curve," where the real shows minimal response when the differential is between 6%-10%, but experiences significant depreciation when it falls below 6% [1]. - A high interest rate differential (above 10%) may also lead to depreciation due to increased country risk [1]. Group 3: Recent Developments - The recent weakening of the real is not seen as a random event but rather as a structural change in the interest rate differential, which historically leads to capital outflows and significant depreciation of the currency [2].