重磅经济数据即将发布 宏观政策将适时加力

Economic Overview - China's economy maintained a stable operation in the first half of the year, achieving a growth rate of 5.3% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year is under close scrutiny, with expectations for continued support from macro policies [1] Industrial Growth - The average forecast for July's industrial added value year-on-year growth is 6.0%, despite expected slowdowns due to seasonal factors and external pressures [2] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1% [2] - Despite challenges, external demand remains resilient, supporting production activities [2] Consumer Spending - The average forecast for July's retail sales year-on-year growth is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's figure [3] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 3 trillion yuan in sales generated since its implementation [3] - High-frequency data indicates a strong performance in certain sectors, such as passenger vehicle retail and major home appliances [3] Automotive Industry - In July, China's automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [4] - The automotive market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but the "trade-in" policy continues to have a positive impact [4] Infrastructure Investment - The average forecast for July's fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is 2.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [5] - Infrastructure investment is supported by government policies and ongoing projects, despite some slowdowns due to adverse weather conditions [5] - Sales of excavators in July increased by 25.2% year-on-year, indicating strong demand in the engineering machinery sector [5][6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is facing challenges, with significant declines in new housing transaction volumes in major cities [6] - The construction sector is expected to see a continued slowdown, influenced by falling cement prices and adverse weather [6]