特朗普关税伤害了谁？商品价格成本飙升 消费者买单还是企业求豁免？

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration is expected to lead to price increases, prompting American businesses to seek exemptions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Businesses - American businesses are adjusting their short-term strategies, such as early procurement and limiting imports to essentials, while also reevaluating long-term strategies due to the new normal of tariff fluctuations [2][3]. - The National Retail Federation (NRF) and the National Restaurant Association (NRA) indicate that the clarity of the tariff landscape presents both short-term and long-term challenges for various industries [2][3]. - Manufacturers, like Stanley Black & Decker, have already raised prices due to cost pressures from tariffs, and retailers, including Walmart, have warned of impending price increases [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - Higher tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, leading to increased prices, reduced hiring, decreased capital expenditures, and slowed innovation [2][3]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the tariff adjustments will negatively impact global trade, with increasing pressure on U.S. imports expected by mid-2025 and into 2026 [3]. Group 3: Restaurant Industry Challenges - The restaurant industry is facing significant cost increases for essential menu items due to tariffs, which may force operators to raise menu prices despite their reluctance [4][5]. - A decline in customer visits to restaurants has been noted, particularly among low-income customers, leading to a decrease in sales for chains like McDonald's [5][6]. - The American Restaurant Association has warned that tariffs on food and beverage products from Mexico and Canada could result in a loss of $15.16 billion for the domestic restaurant industry [5][6]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Current tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are set at 35% and 25%, respectively, while products meeting USMCA standards are exempt from tariffs [6]. - The coffee industry is particularly affected, with tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans rising to 50%, significantly increasing procurement costs for U.S. coffee shops [6]. - The American Restaurant Association advocates for the exclusion of food and beverage products from tariff negotiations and for maintaining exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods [6].