价格战如何影响车市？汽车均价走出“倒U曲线”

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a significant price war, with 227 models seeing price reductions in 2024, averaging a decrease of 18,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 13,000 yuan for fuel vehicles, representing declines of 9.2% and 6.8% respectively [2] - Despite the price war, the average retail price of vehicles has increased from 151,000 yuan in 2019 to 186,000 yuan in the first half of 2024, indicating a structural shift in the market [2][3] - The market is witnessing a decline in low-end fuel vehicle sales while high-end fuel vehicle sales are increasing, leading to an overall rise in average prices [2][3] Price Dynamics - In 2024, 84.4% of automotive dealers reported price inversions, with over 40% operating at a loss, resulting in a profit margin drop to 4.3%, down from 7.8% in 2017 [2] - The average price of new energy vehicles is projected to decrease from 184,000 yuan in 2023 to 161,000 yuan in 2025, driven by supply chain maturity and an increase in high-end models [3] - The market for vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan has seen significant growth, with sales increasing from 2.15 million units in 2019 to 6.99 million units in 2024, while sales of vehicles below 200,000 yuan have declined [3] Future Trends - By 2025, the average price of passenger vehicles is expected to decline, with projections showing a drop to 172,000 yuan in Q2 and 169,000 yuan in July, an 8,000 yuan decrease from 2024 [3][4] - The "trade-in" policy is contributing to the decline in average vehicle prices, with a resurgence in the low-end market and increased sales of micro electric vehicles [5] - The potential for domestic brands to fill the gap left by traditional luxury vehicles is being discussed, with several new high-end models from domestic manufacturers gaining traction [6] Market Structure Changes - The high-end fuel vehicle market has seen a significant decline, with market share dropping from 96% in 2019 to 39.8% in July 2024 [4] - The demand for traditional luxury vehicles is decreasing, as consumers find that vehicles priced under 400,000 yuan meet their needs, leading to a potential shift in market dynamics [6] - The overall trend indicates that while the average price of vehicles may have peaked, the market is likely to continue evolving with changing consumer preferences and economic conditions [5][6]