Mortgage Rates are Relatively High: How to Approach AGNC Stock Now?

Core Insights - AGNC Investment Inc.'s performance is heavily influenced by mortgage rates, which are currently declining but remain high compared to previous years [1][3] - The company's tangible book value (TBV) has decreased by 7% year over year, indicating financial pressure [3][8] - AGNC's dividend yield stands at 15.2%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.5%, attracting income-focused investors [6][21] Mortgage Rates and Market Conditions - Mortgage rates are impacting the origination volume and refinancing index, leading to operational challenges for mREITs like AGNC [2][8] - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was reported at 6.63% as of August 7, 2025, down from 6.72% the previous week but up from 6.47% a year ago [1] Financial Performance - AGNC's TBV fell to $7.81, and the average net interest spread narrowed to 2.01% from 2.69% year over year, reflecting increased costs and reduced profitability [3][8] - The company has a liquidity position of $6.4 billion as of June 30, 2025, indicating a decent financial standing [12] Dividend and Share Repurchase - AGNC has a payout ratio of 89% and has not increased its dividends over the past five years, raising concerns about sustainability [6][21] - A new share repurchase plan allows AGNC to buy back up to $1 billion of common stock through December 31, 2026 [11] Market Outlook - AGNC focuses on agency MBS, which are guaranteed by U.S. government entities, positioning it favorably in the market [13][14] - Despite a competitive environment, management maintains a positive outlook for agency MBS investments, citing favorable mortgage spreads [14] Valuation and Price Performance - Year-to-date, AGNC shares have gained 12.1%, outperforming the industry average of 8.2% [15] - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) multiple of 1.17X, above the industry average of 1.01X, indicating a premium valuation [18][21]