Hudbay Minerals Set to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Hudbay Minerals (HBM) is expected to report improved second-quarter 2025 results, driven by higher gold and copper prices, with projected revenues of $495.3 million, reflecting a 16.4% year-over-year growth [1][5]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HBM's second-quarter earnings has decreased by 35.3% over the past 60 days to 11 cents per share, but this still represents a significant improvement from the break-even earnings reported in the same quarter last year [2]. - HBM's earnings surprise history shows that the company has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 50% [3]. Production and Operations - In Q1 2025, HBM produced 30,958 tons of copper and 73,784 ounces of gold, with copper output down 11% and gold production down 18% year-over-year, aligning with internal expectations [8]. - The ongoing stripping phase in the Pampacancha pit has negatively impacted production in Peru, but higher gold production in Manitoba has partially offset this decline [9]. - Manitoba operations achieved gold production of 60,354 ounces, copper of 3,469 tons, and silver of 285,603 ounces, with gold, copper, and silver production increasing by 6%, 10%, and 30% respectively compared to Q1 2024 [10]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices averaged around $3,301.42 per ounce in the April-June 2025 period, marking a 41% year-over-year increase, while silver prices rose by 16% and copper prices increased by 5% [14]. - These favorable pricing trends are expected to help mitigate the impact of lower production volumes on HBM's revenue performance in the upcoming quarter [15]. Valuation and Market Performance - HBM shares have increased by 19% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 17.9% [16]. - The company is currently trading at a forward price/sales ratio of 1.74, higher than the industry average of 1.15, indicating a relatively elevated valuation compared to peers [19][20]. Investment Outlook - Hudbay Minerals' diversified operations in copper and gold provide leverage to strong commodity prices, with projected copper output averaging 144,000 tons annually over the next three years [21]. - Despite expected upbeat second-quarter results driven by higher gold prices, concerns remain regarding lower production levels due to the depletion of the Pampacancha deposit [23].