华尔街多空对决：Stifel预言标普500或暴跌14% Trivariate却乐观预测两年内冲上7000点

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has recently rebounded, surpassing 6400 points, but there is significant divergence in Wall Street's outlook for future trends [1] - Stifel's chief equity strategist, Barry Bannister, warns of high valuations and stagflation risks, comparing the current market to the late 1990s, suggesting the S&P 500 could drop to 5500 points [2] - Bannister highlights that the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 24, above the five-year average of 22, indicating potential for a market correction similar to past crashes [2] Group 2 - A Bank of America survey reveals that 91% of investors believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest in over a decade, yet there is an increase in equity allocation among investors [3] - The survey indicates a complex market sentiment, with only 5% expecting a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy and 41% concerned about an "AI stock bubble" [3] - Interest in emerging markets is rising, with a net increase in allocations reaching 37%, attributed to a nearly 10% depreciation of the dollar and improved expectations for the Chinese economy [3] Group 3 - In contrast to Bannister's caution, Trivariate Research's Adam Parker predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7000 points by the end of 2026, representing a potential upside of about 9.6% [4] - Parker anticipates a 10% growth in corporate profits by 2026, driven by banking sector earnings and productivity gains from AI, particularly in financial and healthcare sectors [4] - Recommended stocks include First Capital Credit, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and healthcare companies like McKesson and Cardinal Health, which are expected to benefit from AI enhancements [4]