供需失衡加剧 丙烯酸密集投产或引发“技术溢价”

Core Viewpoint - The acrylic acid industry is entering a phase of intensified competition due to the recent commissioning of new production facilities, leading to a potential shift towards a technology premium era [1][4]. Supply Pressure Escalation - BASF's new integrated acrylic acid facility in Zhanjiang is expected to enhance the production capacity across the entire acrylic acid value chain, addressing the growing demand in China and Asia [2]. - By the end of 2024, global acrylic acid production capacity is projected to approach 9 million tons per year, with China contributing 4.08 million tons per year [2]. - Domestic acrylic acid capacity is set to increase to 4.4 million tons per year by mid-2025, with additional capacity planned from Shandong Lanwan and Tianjin Bohua [2][3]. - The acrylic acid market is facing supply-demand imbalances, with increasing production capacity leading to heightened supply pressure [2][3]. Supply-Demand Imbalance Intensifies - The demand for acrylic acid derivatives, particularly acrylic acid butyl ester, is showing mixed signals, with a decline in export volumes and a drop in market prices [3]. - The overall demand for acrylic acid remains weak, with traditional sectors like oil extraction and water treatment not showing significant growth [3]. Entering the Technology Premium Era - The acrylic acid industry is undergoing a transformation from scale competition to ecological competition, with the top five companies holding 65% of the market share [4][5]. - Leading companies are leveraging technological advancements and industry chain integration to create ecological barriers, while smaller firms struggle to meet stringent environmental and performance standards [4][5]. - The industry is expected to transition into a technology premium era over the next five years, emphasizing the need for breakthroughs in specialized acrylic acid production [5].