标普500四度冲击6400点失利，特斯拉强势四连涨，中概股表现分化

Market Overview - The US stock market continues to experience volatility under multiple pressures, with the three major indices slightly declining. The S&P 500 index tested the critical resistance level of 6400 points four times without success, closing at 6373.45 points, down 0.25% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 0.45% and 0.3%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the July CPI data release by the Federal Reserve, with institutions generally believing that inflation data will serve as a short-term directional indicator [1] - JPMorgan estimates that if the July core CPI month-on-month growth is below 0.25%, the S&P 500 could rebound by 1.5%-2%. Conversely, if it exceeds 0.4%, a pullback of 2%-2.75% may occur [2] Sector Performance - Despite market pressure, Tesla has become a focal point, rising for the fourth consecutive trading day with a daily increase of over 2.8%. This performance stands out against the backdrop of weak traditional energy and airline sectors [2] - Tesla's strong performance is attributed to expectations surrounding its earnings season and structural opportunities in the electrification trend [2] - In contrast, major tech companies like Nvidia and Apple experienced slight declines due to a cooling market risk appetite [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.29%, with Xpeng Motors rising nearly 6% due to domestic policy support for new energy vehicles and industry "de-involution" progress. However, Alibaba and JD.com continue to face valuation pressures [3] - The lithium mining sector surged due to news of a production halt at CATL, with stocks like Yahua and SQM seeing daily increases of over 8% [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are also a source of market disturbance, with President Trump announcing a tentative meeting with Putin, which may involve discussions with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Market reactions included a decline in precious metals futures, with COMEX gold and silver contracts dropping by 2.8% and 2.33%, respectively [4] - Analysts suggest that any easing of US-Russia relations could alleviate global trade concerns, but short-term uncertainties in geopolitical dynamics will continue to suppress risk asset valuations [4] AI and Cryptocurrency Markets - The AI application sector is facing challenges, with C3.ai's stock plummeting by 25.58% due to disappointing earnings, and BigBear.ai's stock dropping nearly 30% post-earnings [5] - The cryptocurrency market has also seen volatility, with Ethereum-related stocks experiencing mixed performance, reflecting investor caution regarding digital currency fluctuations [5] Investment Strategies - Overall, the US stock market is in a delicate balance between "fundamental support" and "valuation pressure." Short-term market movements may revolve around CPI data and US-Russia meetings, while long-term observations will focus on whether corporate earnings can absorb high valuations [5] - UBS's Chief Investment Officer suggests that investors who are fully allocated should consider short-term hedging, while those with insufficient positions may wait for a pullback opportunity [5]