Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to conduct its final interest rate cut in December 2025, marking the end of the current monetary easing cycle, with economists pushing back the timeline for further cuts by three months [1]. Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy Outlook - The ECB is anticipated to maintain the deposit rate at 1.75% for nine to ten months until market demand prompts a reassessment of its monetary policy direction [1]. - The decision to delay the final cut until the end of the year allows policymakers to better evaluate the economic impact of trade fluctuations caused by U.S. President Trump's policies [1]. - The upcoming economic data for the third quarter and the distortion caused by U.S. tariffs earlier in the year will provide clearer insights for the ECB's December meeting [1]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Sentiment - Central banks worldwide are exhibiting a cautious stance, with the Federal Reserve taking no action this year and the Bank of England acknowledging "substantial uncertainty" [1]. - Despite the ECB maintaining current rates, several officials have indicated that there is no immediate need for further cuts, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a September rate cut [1]. - Current market predictions suggest a slightly higher than 50% chance of one rate cut before the end of the year [1]. Group 3: Economic Analysis - Economists from TD Securities highlight that unless significant changes in trade patterns lead to weak economic data, the ECB is unlikely to rush into further cuts [2]. - If the ECB does not implement a rate cut in December, financial markets may interpret this as a formal end to the easing cycle [2]. - A prior survey indicated that about half of the respondents expect the ECB to refrain from cutting rates in three consecutive meetings, confirming that rates have reached a cyclical low [2].
欧洲央行预计12月进行最后一次降息 宽松周期接近尾声
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-12 00:56