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中信证券:苹果(AAPL.US)追加1000亿美元在美投资 看好果链公司估值修复
智通财经网·2025-08-12 01:32

Group 1: Core Insights - Apple has committed to an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing, which is seen as a strategy to mitigate potential punitive tariffs on hardware products [1] - The valuation of Apple’s supply chain companies is currently low, and there is optimism for a recovery in sentiment as negative factors dissipate [1] - The expected hardware innovation cycle from 2025 to 2027 is anticipated to drive growth, particularly for companies with strong Apple business contributions and those positioned in AI, foldable screens, and robotics [1] Group 2: Valuation Recovery of Supply Chain - Since April 2025, the stock prices of Apple’s supply chain companies have recovered to pre-tariff levels, but overall gains in Q2 lagged behind, indicating that valuations remain attractive [2] - The average valuation for these companies corresponds to approximately 18 times PE for 2026, with most companies valued below 20 times PE [2] - Potential catalysts for valuation recovery include the conclusion of the 232 tariff investigation, stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17, advancements in Apple Intelligence, and changes in the iPhone NPI models in 2026 [2] Group 3: Capacity Transfer - Apple has committed a total of $600 billion to U.S. manufacturing, with a focus on highly automated chips and components, as well as potential AI server production domestically [3] - Currently, about 80% of iPhone production is in mainland China, with 20% in India, while other products like AirPods and iPads have a domestic production ratio of 40-60% [3] - The strategy of diversifying production locations to mitigate tariff risks is expected to continue, with a positive outlook for core supply chain companies expanding overseas [3] Group 4: Outlook on New Products - In 2025, Apple is expected to continue hardware upgrades to support AI functionalities, including the introduction of the iPhone 17 Air and new design features in the Pro series [4] - For 2026, key hardware innovations include the first foldable iPhone, new AirPods with optical features, and advancements in the Apple Vision Pro product line [4] - By 2027, significant upgrades are anticipated for Apple's 20th anniversary products, including advancements in glasses, foldable screens, and notable enhancements in the iPhone lineup [4]