【财经分析】涨价函+停机函齐上阵 造纸行业开启“反内卷”引关注

Core Viewpoint - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, led by major paper companies, due to rising raw material costs and improved demand expectations as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2]. Price Increase Trends - Multiple paper companies, including Nine Dragons Paper and Jiangxi Lee & Man Paper, have announced price hikes for corrugated paper and recycled kraft paper, with increases generally ranging from 30 to 50 yuan per ton starting August 1 [2]. - The price increase trend began in the first quarter of the year, with some leading companies issuing multiple price increase notices, particularly accelerating in July [2]. - The main reasons for the price hikes are rising raw material costs and expectations of improved demand, as the second half of the year is traditionally a peak season for the paper industry [2]. Raw Material Costs - The price of waste paper has rebounded significantly, with the average reference price for waste yellow board paper rising from a low of approximately 1400 yuan per ton in February to 1653 yuan per ton by August 8 [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 7, inventory levels for corrugated paper and boxboard have decreased, indicating a slight easing of supply pressure [3]. - Despite the price increase announcements, the actual implementation has been less effective due to insufficient demand [3]. - Analysts expect that with the stabilization of pulp prices and the upcoming peak season for cultural paper bidding, paper prices may continue to recover, benefiting paper manufacturers [3]. Industry Initiatives - Major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper have announced maintenance shutdowns to support the "anti-involution" initiative aimed at enhancing product quality and upgrading equipment [4]. - The "anti-involution" initiative encourages resisting low-price competition, optimizing capacity structure, and promoting innovation and quality improvement within the industry [4]. Market Outlook - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative, which may help stabilize prices and improve profitability for leading companies [5]. - The current state of the industry shows that after years of expansion, new capacity additions are limited, and many paper types are at the bottom of the pricing cycle, indicating potential for recovery [5].