碳酸二甲酯：赛道拥挤 亟待整合

Group 1 - The domestic dimethyl carbonate (DMC) market has experienced a price increase due to supply tightness from maintenance and rising demand from lithium battery electrolyte, with prices in Shandong rising from 3800 yuan to 4200 yuan, an increase of approximately 11% [1] - The DMC industry is facing severe losses despite the price increase, indicating a need for industry consolidation due to overcrowding [1][2] - DMC is categorized into industrial grade (99.9%) and battery grade (99.999% and above), with battery grade DMC being a key solvent for lithium-ion battery electrolytes [2] Group 2 - The DMC production capacity in China has seen a compound annual growth rate of 28% over the past four years, projected to reach 3.565 million tons by the end of 2024, but the capacity utilization rate has significantly declined [2][6] - The largest DMC production facilities include Hualu Hengsheng with a capacity of 600,000 tons, followed by Lihua Yiyuan with 320,000 tons, and Hengli Petrochemical with 300,000 tons [4] - There are currently 33 companies competing in the DMC market, with significant players including Shida Shenghua and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as large enterprises like Hengli Petrochemical and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [3] Group 3 - The DMC market has been characterized by a significant drop in prices, with the average price falling from 13,000 yuan in November 2020 to 3,780 yuan in 2024, a decrease of 54% [6] - The profitability of DMC production has been severely impacted, with various production methods experiencing substantial losses, indicating a challenging economic environment for producers [6][7] - The industry is expected to see a continued imbalance in supply and demand, leading to intensified price competition and potential exit of outdated production capacities under supportive policies [7]