国盛证券：政策查处超产背景下 焦煤底部大概率得以确认

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that new policies limiting annual and monthly coal production are expected to support coal prices, which have been in decline since their peak in 2021-2022, marking a potential turning point for the industry [1] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed, with the CITIC Coal Index declining by 10.77% from early 2025 to June 30, 2025, significantly lagging behind the 0.03% increase in the CSI 300 Index, primarily due to weak thermal power demand affecting coal prices and profits [1] Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, active funds' holdings in the coal sector dropped to 0.36%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points from Q1 2025, while index funds' holdings fell to 0.71%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] Cost Perspective on Coal Price Valuation - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding coal companies' production costs, noting that the complete cost for the bottom 20% of coal producers is approximately 390 CNY/ton, suggesting that the port price of 618 CNY/ton indicates over 20% of coal production is facing losses [3] Historical Policy Interventions - Historical analysis shows that previous coal price recoveries in 2008, 2015, and 2020 were significantly influenced by government interventions, highlighting the necessity of policy support to reverse price declines [4] Power Coal Price Outlook - The report outlines three potential scenarios for coal prices: an optimistic scenario with improved demand leading to price recovery, a pessimistic scenario with continued weak demand, and a neutral scenario where policy interventions could stabilize prices [5][6] Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops, with low-sulfur coking coal prices nearing 1100 CNY/ton. The report suggests that the current low prices reflect market expectations, and the potential for price recovery exists if production constraints are enforced and demand improves [7]