Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector stocks have seen significant gains following the announcement of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, which is expected to boost demand for dairy products and improve the financial outlook for related companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Australia Asia Group (02425) increased by 35.62%, trading at 1.98 HKD [1] - Modern Farming (01117) rose by 13.49%, trading at 1.43 HKD [1] - Yuan Ecological Agriculture (01431) gained 9.21%, trading at 0.415 HKD [1] - China Shengmu (01432) increased by 7.95%, trading at 0.475 HKD [1] - Youran Dairy (09858) rose by 8.19%, trading at 4.36 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced child-rearing subsidy will provide 3,600 RMB per child annually for children under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The annual issuance of these subsidies is estimated to be around 100 billion RMB, which could have a multiplier effect on demand in the dairy sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rising prices of beef cattle are expected to enhance the profitability and cash flow of livestock companies [1] - Under a scenario where cattle prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, it is projected that Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of 440 million, 340 million, and 80 million RMB respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices may accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1] - The focus is recommended on leading livestock companies listed in Hong Kong [1]
港股异动 | 乳业股涨幅居前 生育补贴有望提振乳制品需求 机构称肉奶周期共振利好牧企