低碳氨开发“摸着石头过河”

Group 1: Market Overview - The global low-carbon ammonia demand could nearly double by 2050 due to factors such as energy carriers, next-generation fuels, and agricultural decarbonization potential [1] - Currently, the low-carbon ammonia market is facing financing challenges, with investors requiring long-term purchase agreements before funding projects, creating additional barriers in a sluggish environment [2] - Despite an initial surge in projects, the low-carbon ammonia market has shifted towards a more cautious approach, with only 270 million tons per year of actual capacity expected by 2050, significantly lower than the theoretical potential of 3.23 billion tons per year [2] Group 2: Future Projections - Fertecon forecasts that global ammonia demand will grow at an average annual rate of 2%, with total demand expected to rise from 203 million tons in 2025 to 372 million tons by 2050 [3] - The global ammonia production is projected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 2.3%, reaching a total output of 372 million tons by 2050, aligning with demand expectations [3] - By 2050, the expected production of gray, green, and blue ammonia will be 204 million tons, 12.7 million tons, and 4 million tons, respectively [3] Group 3: Challenges and Uncertainties - Between 2028 and 2035, low-carbon ammonia capacity utilization may decline due to emerging demand not being able to absorb high-cost production, with North America and the Middle East remaining key project locations [4] - The number of finalized investment decisions for clean ammonia projects is limited, with only 6.8 million tons per year of capacity confirmed, which is negligible compared to gray ammonia production [2][4] Group 4: Policy Implications - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may create new premium opportunities for low-carbon ammonia, but its specific impacts remain uncertain [5] - CBAM will require EU ammonia importers to report product carbon intensity and purchase CBAM certificates starting January 1, 2026, potentially increasing embedded emission costs [5] - Current market dynamics suggest that CBAM could provide competitive opportunities for importers and overseas producers, potentially increasing low-carbon ammonia demand [5] Group 5: Industry Practices - Renewable green ammonia projects require 10 to 20-year purchase agreements for support, as highlighted by Fertiglobe's CEO [6] - Fertiglobe secured its first H2Global green ammonia contract at €1,000 per ton, with potential supply starting in 2027, contingent on the commissioning of its new plant in Egypt [6] - Although current premiums are limited, the industry anticipates that a distinct pricing system for low-carbon ammonia will eventually emerge as carbon intensity differences become more pronounced [7]