CPI数据或重塑美联储决策

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the US dollar index and the implications of recent employment data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, highlighting a strong market expectation for a rate cut in September. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently priced at 98.49, with a slight decline of 0.01% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - There is a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September due to weak employment data [1] - The ISM services price index is showing signs of increasing inflation pressure, which could challenge the prevailing view of an assured rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The recent rebound of the dollar index from a low of 96.3729 to a resistance level of 100.2599 indicates a potential false breakout [1] - The dollar index has moved upward within a short-term consolidation range of 98.00 to 99.00 but has not yet broken through the upper resistance of this range [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be crucial; if inflation data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess its rate cut predictions [1] - The nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may further bolster the dovish sentiment in the market [1]