美联储独立性受疑美元承压

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of political developments on the US dollar, particularly in light of recent weak employment data and President Trump's actions regarding labor officials and Federal Reserve appointments, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently at 98.47, with a slight decline of 0.03% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - Following weak non-farm employment data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 48% to 91% within a week [1] - Cumulative expectations for rate cuts by the end of the year have reached 60 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The political intervention in monetary policy has intensified market bets on aggressive easing, as traditional economic indicators alone would have already strengthened such expectations [1] - Analysts warn that continued erosion of the Fed's independence could lead to a long-term trust crisis in the market, complicating the pricing environment for the US dollar [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is stabilizing above the 50-day moving average of 98.1886, indicating a slight short-term bullish momentum [1] - However, the 100-day moving average at 99.4597 and the 200-day moving average at 103.1420 present resistance levels, suggesting that the dollar has not fully reversed its medium to long-term downtrend [1]