重质纯碱现货价格两周涨幅超30% 碱企积极排产应对需求增长

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash, a key upstream raw material for float glass and photovoltaic glass, has experienced a rapid increase due to supply-demand dynamics, with significant price hikes observed in recent weeks [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of September 5, the price of heavy soda ash reached 3070 RMB/ton, marking a 32.33% increase over the past two weeks [1]. - Light soda ash also saw a price increase to 2970 RMB/ton, with a 33.78% rise in the same period [2]. - Domestic soda ash inventories have dropped to 122,000 tons as of August 31, a 71% year-on-year decrease, indicating a significant market shortfall [2]. - The primary demand for soda ash comes from glass manufacturing, with float glass accounting for approximately 38% of demand, photovoltaic glass for 14%, and glass packaging for 11% [2]. Production and Market Conditions - The period from August to September is typically characterized by concentrated maintenance among soda ash manufacturers, leading to reduced production and historically low inventory levels [3]. - Following the maintenance season, production is expected to rebound to over 90% capacity, but demand remains strong, suggesting that prices may continue to stay elevated in the short term [3]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is projected to see significant growth, with an expected increase in installed capacity by 200 GW by 2025, indicating a robust demand for soda ash [3]. Market Outlook - Despite a challenging first half of the year for the soda ash sector, companies are optimistic about the second half, with expectations of improved profitability driven by rising prices and demand [4][5]. - Companies like Su Yan Jingshen report a positive outlook for their soda ash business, with increasing production and sales [5]. - The soda ash industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and increased demand from both the photovoltaic and real estate sectors, which will likely enhance the performance of soda ash companies [5].