Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has raised market attention towards the future trends of the RMB exchange rate, influenced by various economic factors and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has appreciated 0.89% against the US dollar in the onshore market and 0.68% in the offshore market as of March 9, 2023, with both markets reaching their highest levels since 2018 [1]. - Key factors affecting the RMB's exchange rate include the economic growth rate differences between China and the US, monetary policy comparisons, and the balance of international payments [1][2]. - The GDP growth rate gap between China and the US is expected to narrow in 2022 due to post-pandemic recovery, while the People's Bank of China is likely to implement policies that support economic growth, indicating a marginal easing of monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Factors - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and high overseas pandemic rates, have increased the demand for the RMB as a safe-haven asset, which may support its value [2][3]. - The current export growth rate is anticipated to decline, leading to a reduction in the current account surplus, which may weaken support for the RMB [3]. - Overall, the RMB is expected to maintain a stable central tendency with two-way fluctuations rather than a sustained trend of appreciation or depreciation [3]. Group 3: Risk Management for Enterprises - In the context of fluctuating exchange rates, effective risk management is crucial for foreign trade enterprises, which should adopt a neutral stance towards exchange rate risks and develop effective hedging strategies [4]. - Enterprises are encouraged to rationally manage their currency exposure and utilize financial derivatives to hedge against exchange rate risks [4].
人民币汇率不惧多重因素扰动 仍将维持双向波动态势
Xin Hua Wang·2025-08-12 06:30