货币政策力挺稳增长 降准降息可期

Group 1 - The core focus of the upcoming week will be on the monetary policy directions of major economies, particularly the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the Federal Reserve, with expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates and for the PBOC to potentially ease its monetary policy [1][2] - The current priority for China is to stabilize economic growth, which is expected to lead to further easing of monetary policy despite the Fed's tightening [2][3] - Recent financial data for February indicates that social financing and new RMB loans fell short of market expectations, highlighting the need for increased credit support to stabilize the macroeconomic environment [2][3] Group 2 - There is a growing likelihood of the PBOC implementing further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to achieve the goal of credit expansion [3][4] - Experts suggest that the timing of potential interest rate cuts remains debated, with some advocating for action before the Fed's March meeting to assert China's monetary policy independence [4][5] - Future interest rate cuts may occur multiple times, with expectations for the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to decrease by 20 basis points [5] Group 3 - Structural monetary policies are expected to play a significant role in supporting the real economy, with a focus on small and micro enterprises, green financing, and regions with slow credit growth [6] - The PBOC is anticipated to increase the use of structural policy tools, optimizing loan allocation towards targeted sectors [6] - Estimates suggest that the PBOC's support for inclusive small and micro loans could reach approximately 28.7 billion RMB this year, with additional support for green credit expected to be around 364.1 billion RMB [6]