库存依旧在高位运行 多晶硅期货短期预计高位震荡

Core Viewpoints - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 53,400.0 yuan, with a current price of 52,980.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.98% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures indicates a clear range pattern for polysilicon in the short term, with significant influences from recent industry associations advocating against excessive competition [1] - Donghai Futures notes a cooling market sentiment, predicting a high-level fluctuation for polysilicon in the short term, supported by lower spot prices and successful price increases in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [2] - Minmetals Futures advises cautious participation from both bulls and bears, highlighting the expected increase in polysilicon production in August, while noting that downstream silicon wafer production increases are limited [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The recent joint initiative by multiple provincial industrial silicon associations is expected to drive the polysilicon market, with a focus on the recovery progress of industrial silicon and the impact of policy advancements [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a potential for high-level fluctuations due to the uncertain transmission of price increases along the supply chain [2][3] - The ongoing narrative around capacity consolidation policies adds to the uncertainty in the market, suggesting that price volatility may increase [3]