国产商品量环比仍回落 液化石油气反弹动力上升

Group 1: Government Actions - The Indian government approved a one-time payment of 300 billion INR (approximately 3.4 billion USD) to state-owned fuel retailers to compensate for losses incurred from selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at subsidized prices to impoverished households [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains its natural gas price forecasts for the Dutch TTF at 37 EUR/MWh for 2025 and 30 EUR/MWh for 2026 [2] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a decrease of 12,941 contracts in net long positions for natural gas futures on NYMEX and ICE markets, bringing the total to 243,198 contracts as of the week ending August 5 [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Hualian Futures noted a continued decline in domestic LPG production compared to last year, with low inventory levels rebounding and port capacity utilization rates falling to the median of recent years. Refinery capacity utilization remains at a multi-year low, while gas station capacity is neutral. The overall inventory at ports has rebounded to high levels, and U.S. inventories continue to rise. Demand is weak, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and a slowdown in restaurant consumption, although chemical demand has increased [3] - Zhonghui Futures observed stabilization in costs alongside high basis levels, leading to increased positions. Oil prices have stabilized, and downstream chemical demand remains decent with PDH operating rates around 70%. Supply and inventory levels are neutral to bearish, with a slight increase in domestic production and rising port inventories. The strategy suggested is to maintain light positions and consider long positions within the range of 3750-3850 [4]