洪灝：北水不断南下 港股下半年行情还有新高

Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience another wave of growth in the second half of the year, primarily driven by continuous inflows of northbound capital [1][2] - The Hong Kong market has shown over 20% growth this year, making it one of the best-performing major markets globally [1] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is thriving, with effective strategies for new listings attracting significant investor interest [1] Investment Opportunities - There are numerous investment opportunities in Hong Kong, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, which have seen a resurgence after a two-year lull [2] - The semiconductor sector and new consumption concepts, such as popular brands like Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Ice City, and Pop Mart, have also doubled in value this year [2] - For investors unsure about stock selection, investing in innovative pharmaceutical index ETFs could yield substantial returns, potentially doubling in six months [2] Economic Factors - The liquidity in Hong Kong is expected to remain robust, especially if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to follow suit [1][2] - Short-term macroeconomic factors are deemed less critical than liquidity for market performance, suggesting that even without positive fundamentals, the market can still rally [1][2] Comparative Market Analysis - While Hong Kong presents many opportunities, some sectors, such as infrastructure stocks and the Apple and Tesla supply chains, are performing well but are only accessible through the A-share market [3] - The current market dynamics differ from previous years, with a notable absence of severe overcapacity issues that characterized earlier supply-side reforms [3][4] - The ongoing price competition in downstream markets, driven by aggressive subsidy strategies from internet platforms, presents a unique challenge compared to past market conditions [4]