黄金承压回落破底中阴 美国CPI成关键指引

Core Insights - The current market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 85% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The upcoming U.S. July core CPI data is crucial, as a lower-than-expected figure could further strengthen the rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices have shown resilience after a significant drop, currently trading around $3345, with market participants closely monitoring key support levels [1][3] Economic Indicators - Economists predict a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the July core CPI, with a year-on-year increase expected to remain at 3%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] - The overall CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, while the core CPI is expected to show its largest increase in six months [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the volatility of inflation reports due to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics relying heavily on estimated data due to budget cuts and staffing shortages [2] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has failed to break through a key resistance level, which, combined with the potential for a rate cut, is expected to support gold prices [2] - The recent announcement from the Trump administration not to impose tariffs on imported gold bars has alleviated some market risk aversion [2] - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong amid ongoing low interest rate expectations [2]