Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-08-12 09:01Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of viscose short fiber demand despite tariff disputes, with projected consumption growth in 2023 and 2024, and a minimal decline in H1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Demand - The apparent consumption of viscose short fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the apparent consumption is expected to be 1.96 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline of only 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [1][2]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The rapid development of vortex spinning technology is anticipated to drive continued growth in viscose short fiber demand, with its market share expected to increase from 10% to 25% [2]. - Vortex spinning technology is particularly suited for chemical fibers, showing significant achievements, although it faces challenges in natural fiber applications [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Effective production capacity for viscose short fiber is projected at 5.07 million tons in 2023 and 4.885 million tons in 2024, with capacity utilization rates of 77.1% and 84.3% respectively [3]. - As of June 2025, nominal capacity is expected to be 5.16 million tons, with effective capacity at 4.935 million tons and a utilization rate of 81.5% [3]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory level for viscose short fiber is reported at 169,700 tons, equating to only 10.9 days of supply, indicating a low inventory level historically [4][5]. - The industry operating rate is at a high of 85.9%, and prices for viscose short fiber have shown an upward trend, with a recent price increase of approximately 150 yuan per ton [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak seasons for textile and apparel, along with a temporary suspension of tariffs, are expected to boost demand for viscose short fiber [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sanyou Chemical, which are likely to benefit from these market dynamics [6].