Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the U.S. airline and tourism industry showed average performance in Q2, leading to a forecasted 7% decline in sales for Samsonite (01910), similar to the decline in Q1 [1] Sales Forecast - Sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 5% to 6%, with EBITDA forecasts lowered by 10% to 14% [1] - Revenue and EBITDA predictions for 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 4% and 12% respectively, with expectations of gradual recovery in 2026 to 2027 [1] Regional Performance - The report anticipates high single-digit declines in sales for Asia and the U.S., while Europe is expected to remain relatively stable [1] Profitability Metrics - EBITDA margin is projected at 16.8%, impacted by weak sales leading to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [1] - EBITDA is expected to decline by 17% [1] Market Trends - Some U.S. and European airlines have reported improved booking demand for Q3, with travel trends in July and August showing a rebound [1] - The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported a year-over-year increase of over 1% in passenger throughput for Q3, compared to a 1% decline in Q2 [1] - Due to a lower base, the forecasted sales decline for Samsonite in the second half of the year is expected to narrow to 2% [1]
大摩：降新秀丽(01910)目标价至24港元 料第三季销售跌幅收窄