99家基金，“撑腰”中芯国际

Core Viewpoint - SMIC's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations in terms of revenue but fell short in net profit, leading to a negative market reaction despite positive revenue growth [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached $2.209 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.7%, outperforming the company's previous guidance of a 4%-6% decline [1] - Net profit for the quarter was $132 million, a 29.5% decrease from Q1, and significantly below market expectations of $167 million [3][8] - Gross margin was reported at 20.4%, exceeding the upper limit of the company's guidance [1] - Capacity utilization rose to 92.5%, the highest in nearly six quarters [1][6] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, SMIC's stock price fell, with A-shares opening down 2.9% and H-shares dropping over 4%, resulting in a market value loss of over 20 billion RMB in one day [1][3] - The market's pessimism was primarily triggered by the company's guidance for future performance during the earnings call [1][8] Operational Insights - The company experienced a "volume increase but price decrease" scenario, with wafer shipments up 4.3% quarter-on-quarter but average selling prices (ASP) down 6.4% [3] - The increase in low-priced 8-inch products contributed to the decline in overall ASP, while rising depreciation and R&D costs further pressured profitability [3][4] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditures for H1 2025 totaled $3.3 billion, with Q2 spending at $1.9 billion, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, and an annual plan exceeding $7 billion [3][8] - Management indicated that ASP increases would not occur unless competitors raised prices, and they aim to support clients in maintaining market share [4][7] - The company expects Q3 revenue to grow by 6% to 11% quarter-on-quarter, despite concerns about visibility for Q4 performance due to potential adjustments in smartphone market demand [7][9] Industry Context - SMIC remains the largest foundry in mainland China, with a stable revenue contribution from the domestic market at 84% [4] - The automotive and industrial chip revenue share increased to 10.6%, while smartphones and consumer electronics accounted for 66%, indicating weak demand in those segments [4][6] - The long-term value of SMIC is tied to the ramp-up of advanced processes and the deep integration with the domestic ecosystem, rather than short-term fluctuations in gross margin [9]