GGII：锂盐价格持续调整 2026H2有望进入新一轮上涨周期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that lithium carbonate prices are expected to stabilize around 80,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, with potential peaks reaching 85,000 CNY/ton or even 90,000 CNY/ton, driven by a gradual easing of supply-demand imbalances [1] - From 2022 to mid-2025, lithium salt prices experienced a significant decline from over 600,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2022 to 60,000 CNY/ton by June 2025, a drop of over 90% [1] - As of July 2025, lithium carbonate prices have rebounded to approximately 70,000 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% from the June low [1] Group 2 - On the demand side, global lithium battery demand for lithium is projected to increase by approximately 350,000 tons LCE in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] - By 2026, global lithium battery demand is expected to reach 1.86 million tons, with an increase of about 370,000 tons, primarily driven by the demand for lithium salts in lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [2] Group 3 - On the supply side, global lithium supply is anticipated to increase by 320,000 tons, reaching 1.65 million tons in 2025, mainly from overseas spodumene mines and salt lakes [6] - Starting in 2024, due to low lithium salt prices, large-scale delays in lithium mining projects are expected, resulting in supply growth rates significantly lagging behind planned expansions and market demand [6] Group 4 - A new cycle of lithium salt price increases is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 due to several factors, including reduced expansion speeds of lithium mines after three years of low prices, government measures to curb disorderly capacity expansion, and strengthened compliance governance in major lithium-producing regions [10]