兴业证券：长期继续坚定看多做多港股 此轮行情将走出超级长牛

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains bullish, with expectations of a prolonged bull market driven by increasing confidence among global and Chinese investors in the Chinese stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In July, the Chinese stock market outperformed globally, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant gains [2]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.9% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.8% in July, with the healthcare sector leading with a 22.8% increase [2]. - As of July 31, the forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Index was 11.3 times, close to the 10-year average, while the PB was 1.18 times, also near the historical average [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - In July, net inflows from southbound funds reached 1356.48 million HKD (approximately 1241.04 million RMB), marking a record high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The proportion of international intermediaries' holdings increased to 43.8% as of July 31, up by 0.5 percentage points from June [3]. - Short selling accounted for 16.0% of total trading volume on the main board as of July 31, a decrease from June [3]. Group 3: Short-term Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for August indicates a potential for market fluctuations, focusing on interim report performances and price-to-earnings ratios [5]. - 54.1% of companies that released interim earnings forecasts reported positive surprises, particularly in finance, materials, and information technology sectors [5]. - The forecasted net profit growth for Hang Seng Index constituents is 6.8% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to June [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector is highlighted as a promising area for investment, particularly in AI-related industries, with expectations of a rebound post-earnings season [6][7]. - New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on sectors such as trendy retail, outdoor activities, and innovative dining [7]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to maintain a positive medium-term outlook, although short-term volatility may present entry opportunities [7]. Group 5: Value Stock Dynamics - High-dividend central state-owned enterprises in sectors like finance, utilities, and energy remain attractive for allocation [8]. - The upcoming interim reports are anticipated to reveal opportunities in sectors likely to exceed expectations, particularly in gold and brokerage firms [8].