“汽车第一省”易主，真相是什么？

Core Insights - The recent shift in statistical methodology, termed "law production and emphasis," has significantly altered the automotive production landscape in China, revealing a more accurate representation of regional production capabilities [1][6][8] - Anhui province has recently surpassed Guangdong to become the "automobile first province" based on half-year production figures, with Anhui producing 1.4995 million vehicles compared to Guangdong's 1.3134 million [1][2] - The new statistical approach has led to dramatic changes in production figures, with some provinces experiencing over 200% increases in production due to the reallocation of production data based on operational location rather than corporate headquarters [2][5] Statistical Changes - The "law production and emphasis" reform was initiated by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2021, aiming to provide a more accurate reflection of the automotive industry's regional distribution by considering the operational location of production facilities [6][7] - This reform has resulted in significant production shifts, with provinces like Hunan and Guizhou seeing production increases of 265.4% and 266.2%, respectively, due to the establishment of new manufacturing bases [2][4] Production Data Overview - In the first half of 2024, the production figures for major provinces were as follows: Anhui at 1.4995 million vehicles (up 29.1% from 1.1614 million), Guangdong at 1.3134 million vehicles (down 42.7% from 2.2917 million), and Hunan at 0.7476 million vehicles (up 265.4% from 0.2046 million) [3][4] - Other provinces such as Shandong and Jiangsu also reported significant increases, with Shandong's production rising by 32.9% and Jiangsu's by 43.9% [3][4] Industry Implications - The reform is expected to enhance data transparency, allowing for a more objective assessment of regional economic development and prompting local governments to plan production capacities more rationally [8] - Major automotive companies, such as BYD, are expanding their production bases across various provinces, which will further influence regional production statistics as the new methodology takes effect [5][6]