兴业证券：适应景气投资的有利环境正逐步回归

Core Viewpoint - The market is witnessing a resurgence of the economic and quality factors that have been suppressed for a long time, leading to a significant improvement in the effectiveness of cyclical investments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The general sentiment in recent years has been that cyclical investments have become more challenging, with a "barbell" strategy being the primary choice. However, this year, cyclical and quality factors have regained market leadership, with two major indices representing active public funds outperforming most broad-based indices [2][5]. - The proportion of high-growth industries in Q1 2025 has significantly increased from 11.45% at the end of 2024 to 22.14%, marking a new high in the number of listed companies showing marginal improvements in economic conditions since 2010 [5]. Group 2: Industry Developments - Various new momentum sectors such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption have made breakthroughs this year, alongside traditional cyclical and manufacturing sectors optimizing their supply structures [5][10]. - The market consensus on cyclical investment themes is strengthening as more technology-driven industries enter a phase of performance realization, particularly in TMT and innovative pharmaceuticals [10]. Group 3: Institutional Participation - Institutional investors skilled in cyclical investments have shown a significant increase in market participation enthusiasm, gradually reclaiming pricing power over quality targets and industries [13]. - Since June, the number of new institutional accounts has surged to historical highs, nearly recovering to levels seen in 2021, becoming a crucial source of incremental capital in the current market rally [13].