巴西糖减产预期升温 纽约原糖期货价格三连涨

Group 1 - Concerns are rising over potential supply tightness due to reduced sugarcane production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, leading to a third consecutive day of rising New York raw sugar futures prices, marking the longest streak since February 21 [1] - The projected sugar production in Brazil for the 2025-26 season is expected to fall to a range of 39 to 40 million tons, down from the previously anticipated 41 million tons, primarily due to widespread drought affecting early crop growth [1] - Current market prices are also supported by physical procurement demand from Pakistan, while India's sugar export policy for the 2024-25 season is under scrutiny, with the export window closing on September 30 and new season exports not expected to start until February next year, indicating potential short-term trade tightness [1] Group 2 - As of August 31, Brazil's sugar inventory stood at 9.3 million tons, an 8% decrease from 10.1 million tons in the same period last year, indicating no surplus in the current sugar stock [1] - For sustained upward momentum in sugar prices, the market requires clear evidence that Brazil's actual production is significantly lower than the current data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) [2] - Market participants are closely monitoring weather changes and crop growth progress in production areas, as any signals of lower-than-expected yields could exacerbate price volatility [2]