【环球财经】关税影响逐步显现，美国7月CPI环比增速或创6个月高位

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to show a rebound in inflation, influenced by tariffs, with analysts predicting a year-on-year increase from 2.7% in June to 2.8% in July [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Analysts anticipate that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, will see a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking a six-month high [1][2]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest with a lag of 3 to 5 months, indicating that July's CPI data will reflect the influence of tariffs on prices [2][3]. - Core goods inflation is projected to rise, with significant upward pressure on prices for imported goods such as furniture and electronics, potentially increasing core inflation by 0.12 percentage points [3][4]. Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector is expected to show a continued decline, with gasoline prices experiencing a larger year-on-year drop, while used car and housing prices are also projected to decrease due to high interest rates and reduced demand [2][3]. - The service sector, which constitutes 61% of the CPI basket, has been experiencing a downward trend, but this effect is expected to diminish, with core service prices projected to rise by 0.3% in July [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased significantly, with an 84.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - However, the potential rebound in inflation may complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts, as some members express caution about immediate policy changes [8][9]. Market Reactions - The market's response to the July CPI data will be closely monitored, with analysts suggesting that if core inflation remains around 0.3%, it may not disrupt the stock market significantly [9][10]. - A higher-than-expected core CPI could lead to a decline in the S&P 500 index, with specific thresholds outlined for potential market movements based on CPI results [10][11].