【环球财经】英国劳动力市场继续降温 薪资压力犹存

Core Insights - The UK labor market is experiencing a cooling trend due to increased employment taxes, uncertain trade prospects, and cautious consumer attitudes, although the decline in employment is less severe than in previous months [1][2] - The number of employees in the UK decreased by 8,000 in July, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, but this is the smallest drop since January and better than the expected reduction of 20,000 [2] - Wage growth remains strong, with basic wages increasing by 5.0% year-on-year for the three months ending in June, although private sector wage growth has slightly decreased [1][2] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.7%, consistent with the previous period and the highest level since July 2021 [1] - The total number of employees has decreased by 165,000 since the increase in corporate taxes and minimum wage in April, indicating significant pressure on labor-intensive sectors like retail and hospitality [2] Economic Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to adopt a cautious approach in balancing inflation and economic growth, with concerns about potential price pressures from wage growth [1] - RSM UK suggests that the stabilization of the labor market reduces the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the near term, with a lower probability of a rate cut in November [2]