美银8月全球基金经理调查：做多“漂亮7股”再次成为最拥挤的交易

Core Insights - The survey indicates that fund managers are the most optimistic since February 2025, with a reduced probability of a hard landing and a historical low cash level of 3.9% in assets under management (AUM) [1][14]. Macro and Policy - 68% of respondents predict a soft landing for the economy, while only 5% are preparing for a hard landing [2][6]. - The global growth outlook remains weak, with a net -41% sentiment regarding economic strength [2]. - Optimism regarding interest rate cuts has reached its highest level since December 2024 [2]. Risks, Crowded Trades, and AI - Tail risks from trade wars/recession have decreased to 29%, while inflation risks and Federal Reserve inaction are at 27% and 20%, respectively [3]. - The perception of an AI bubble is mixed, with 52% of respondents believing there is no bubble, while 45% consider "longing the Magnificent Seven stocks" as the most crowded trade [3]. Asset Allocation - Global equity overweight has reached a net 14%, the highest since February 2025, with a shift of funds from the Eurozone to emerging markets [4]. - 91% of respondents believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, marking a historical high [4]. - There is a notable shift in allocations from healthcare to utilities, energy, and financial sectors [4]. Cryptocurrency and Gold - Only 9% of investors hold cryptocurrencies, with an average allocation of 3.2% [5]. - In contrast, 48% of investors hold gold, with an average allocation of 4.1% [5]. Contrarian Trading Strategies - The best contrarian long positions include U.S. cash, REITs, and healthcare, while the best short positions are in stocks, emerging markets, banks, and utilities [6].